Missing The Point In The Middle East

In Monday’s New York Times, Hassan Fattah bemoans the retreat of reforms in the Middle East, “Steps toward democracy in the Arab world, a crucial American goal that just months ago was cause for optimism…are slowing, blocked by legal maneuvers and official changes of heart throughout the Middle East.”

But the truth is, the reforms Fattah and other liberal hacks celebrated, be they elections in Iraq, the ‘Beirut Spring’ or September’s Egyptian elections (surprise winner—Hosni Mubarak!), were always more important to them than to the people of the region. Indeed, reform has stalled not simply because of the authoritarian grip of local governments, but also because there is so little popular pressure for such measures. As Fattah's article goes on to illustrate, reform in the Middle East is an entirely top-down process today, driven by elites as concerned with international impressions as domestic relations.

This is not to say that Middle Eastern populations wouldn’t enjoy greater freedom of expression, or the ability to hold their leaders accountable in regular and contested elections. But, after the failure of the mass independence movements of the post-war period (in particular the collapse of Arab nationalism), there is a wide-spread cynicism toward the possibilities of political endeavor and change. Of course, the Iraq war has done nothing to assuage this cautious worldview. Thus, reform from above is viewed with cynicism and not a little trepidation—nobody wants to see their already precarious situation further destabilized.

Furthermore, commentators and journalists such as Fattah, obsessed as they are with procedural democracy, are often blinkered to actual change occurring in the region. Although the spike in the price of oil, along with the growth of East Asian markets (particularly China of course), may be somewhat uncertain, they have provided the cash for a new round of infrastructure development, concentrated in, but not limited to, the Gulf. Some of this may eventually reduce the perennial problem of dependence on oil revenues. And at a much slower pace, advances in basic health and education continue, meaning Middle Easterners are living longer and enjoying more opportunities than ever before. None of it makes for sexy headlines, but this is the real story of change in the current period.