Al-Qaeda in Mogadishu?
The BBC reported yesterday that the interim prime minister of Somalia, Ali Mohamed Ghedi, had called for "international help against the 'al-Qaeda' and 'terrorist' expansion in the country." The event precipitating this newest cry for help from Somalia's 'transitional government' is the Union of Islamic Court's (UIC) recent entry into Kismayo, Somalia's major southern port city, once consider a possible landing point for peacekeepers. The UIC has made headlines for two reasons. First, it has done what no other political power has done since 1991: brought a degree of peace and order to southern Somalia. Second, it is Islamist, leading to fears that it might have terrorist links.
In fact, as we have written before, the evidence for the terrorist connection in Somalia is poor, to say the least. What there *is* good evidence for is that Western intervention in Somalia has done little to resolve the conflict there, and probably done a great deal to strengthen the hand of the UIC. While the transitional government has played negotiating games at endless international negotiations, the UIC has done the somewhat harder work of developing a solid , relatively cohesive political organization in Somalia - something the secular warlords were never able to do. Indeed, Indeed, as the New York Times reported recently about the UIC in Mogadishu:
"Instead of acting like the Taliban and ruthlessly imposing a harsh religious orthodoxy, as many feared, the Islamists seem to be trying to increase public support by softening their views, at least officially, delivering social services and pushing for democratic elections. Islamic leaders are operating almost in campaign mode, organizing street cleanups, visiting hospitals, overseeing a mini building boom and recruiting elderly policemen to don faded uniforms they have not worn for years and return to work."
And the UIC entered Kismayo without firing a shot. In other words, while there are no doubt those who do not support the UIC, it is clearly the most legitimate power in southern Somalia. It has become a force able to bring a degree of unity and stability to the southern territory, and certainly enjoys the widest support of any really existing political organization there.
A while back we noted that fragile third world regimes had acquired a tendency to talk up the terrorist threat at home in order to acquire various kinds of international support - usually aimed at bolstering their repressive state apparatus. Ghedi's cry for help looks like more of the same. Ghedi's 'transitional government' looks on its way to transitioning out of existence. It now controls only one town in all of Somalia - Baidoa - and it does that only precariously. Ethiopian troops have been reported crossing into Somalia, and entering Baidoa to defend Ghedi's government from the inevitable collision with the UIC. Ghedi knows his days may be numbered. He also must know that the West is unlikely to get involved in an African 'peacekeeping' venture unless there are dire stakes. It is no surprise that he has discovered 'Al-Qaeda' in Mogadishu.
In fact, as we have written before, the evidence for the terrorist connection in Somalia is poor, to say the least. What there *is* good evidence for is that Western intervention in Somalia has done little to resolve the conflict there, and probably done a great deal to strengthen the hand of the UIC. While the transitional government has played negotiating games at endless international negotiations, the UIC has done the somewhat harder work of developing a solid , relatively cohesive political organization in Somalia - something the secular warlords were never able to do. Indeed, Indeed, as the New York Times reported recently about the UIC in Mogadishu:
"Instead of acting like the Taliban and ruthlessly imposing a harsh religious orthodoxy, as many feared, the Islamists seem to be trying to increase public support by softening their views, at least officially, delivering social services and pushing for democratic elections. Islamic leaders are operating almost in campaign mode, organizing street cleanups, visiting hospitals, overseeing a mini building boom and recruiting elderly policemen to don faded uniforms they have not worn for years and return to work."
And the UIC entered Kismayo without firing a shot. In other words, while there are no doubt those who do not support the UIC, it is clearly the most legitimate power in southern Somalia. It has become a force able to bring a degree of unity and stability to the southern territory, and certainly enjoys the widest support of any really existing political organization there.
A while back we noted that fragile third world regimes had acquired a tendency to talk up the terrorist threat at home in order to acquire various kinds of international support - usually aimed at bolstering their repressive state apparatus. Ghedi's cry for help looks like more of the same. Ghedi's 'transitional government' looks on its way to transitioning out of existence. It now controls only one town in all of Somalia - Baidoa - and it does that only precariously. Ethiopian troops have been reported crossing into Somalia, and entering Baidoa to defend Ghedi's government from the inevitable collision with the UIC. Ghedi knows his days may be numbered. He also must know that the West is unlikely to get involved in an African 'peacekeeping' venture unless there are dire stakes. It is no surprise that he has discovered 'Al-Qaeda' in Mogadishu.
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